Uncertainty communication in environmental assessments: views from the Dutch science-policy interface

Scientific assessments of environmental problems, and policy responses to those problems, involve uncertainties of many sorts. Meanwhile, potential impacts of wrong decisions can be far-reaching. This article explores views on uncertainty and uncertainty communication in the Dutch science-policy interface and studies several issues concerning presentation of uncertainty information. Respondents considered uncertainty communication to be important, but it should be concise and policy relevant. Several factors influence policy relevance, including the place of an issue in the policy cycle, and its novelty, topicality and controversiality. Respondents held particular interest in explicit communication on the implications of uncertainty. Related to this, they appreciated information on different sources and types of uncertainty and qualitative aspects of uncertainty (e.g. pedigree charts). The article also studies probability terms, particularly for IPCC's 33–66% probability interval (‘about as likely as not’). Several terms worked reasonably well, with a median interpretation of 40–60%. Finally, as various target groups have different information needs and different amounts of attention for various parts of a report or communication process, it is important to progressively disclose uncertainty information throughout the communication. Improved communication of uncertainty information leads to a deeper understanding and increased awareness of the phenomenon of uncertainty and its policy implications.     

滇池福保湾底泥内源氮磷营养盐释放通量估算

在滇池福保湾采集柱状芯样,室内静态模拟沉积物NH4 -N和P3-4-P的释放.结果表明,底泥NH4 -N和PO3-4-P的释放速率分别为22.941～163.117 mg·(m2·d)-1和0.90～2.06 mg·(m2·d)-1,不同区域释放速率差异极大.相对较低的释放速率与湖湾接纳高浓度污水使上覆水与沉积物孔隙水间浓度势减弱有关.通过Peeper(原位渗析膜采样器)法获取间隙水-上覆水剖面样品分析,并根据Fick扩散定律计算出福保湾底泥NH4 -N和pO3--P的释放速率分别为2.85～81.96 mg·(m2·d)-1和0.118～0.265 mg·(m2·d)-1.比较2种方法,利用Fick定律计算出的界面氮磷释放通量明显小于柱样模拟方法.经面积加权,按静态释放计算出福保湾底泥NH4 -N和PO3-4-P的年释放通量分别为(49.9±8.8)t和(0.79±0.53)t.     

Nitrous oxide supersaturation at the liquid/air interface of animal waste

Concentrated animal feeding operations around the globe generate large amounts of nitrous oxide (N₂O) in the surrounding atmosphere. Liquid animal waste systems have received little attention with respect to N₂O emissions. We hypothesized that the solution chemistry of animal waste aqueous suspensions would promote conditions that lead to N₂O supersaturation at the liquid/air interface. The concentration of dissolved N₂O in poultry litter (PL) aqueous suspensions at 25 °C was 0.36 μg N₂O mL⁻¹, at least an order of magnitude greater than that measured in water in equilibrium with ambient air, suggesting N₂O supersaturation. There was a nonlinear increase in the N₂O Henry constants of PL from 2810 atm/mole fraction at 35 °C to 17 300 atm/mole fraction at 41 °C. The extremely high N₂O Henry constants were partially ascribed to N₂O complexation with aromatic moieties. Complexed N₂O structures were unstable at temperatures > 35 °C, supplying the headspace with additional free N₂O concentrations.     

Conservation Focus on Europe: Major Conservation Policy Issues That Need to Be Informed by Conservation Science

Abstract:  Europe is one of the world's most densely populated continents and has a long history of human-dominated land- and seascapes. Europe is also at the forefront of developing and implementing multinational conservation efforts. In this contribution, we describe some top policy issues in Europe that need to be informed by high-quality conservation science. These include evaluation of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network of protected sites, implications of rapid economic and subsequent land-use change in Central and Eastern Europe, conservation of marine biodiversity and sustainability of fisheries, the effect of climate change on movement of species in highly fragmented landscapes, and attempts to assess the economic value of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Broad policy issues such as those identified are not easily amenable to scientific experiment. A key challenge at the science–policy interface is to identify the research questions underlying these problem areas so that conservation science can provide evidence to underpin future policy development .     

Test procedure for evaluating the human–machine interface of vehicles with automated driving systems

Abstract

Objective: The human–machine interface (HMI) is a crucial part of every automated driving system (ADS). In the near future, it is likely that—depending on the operational design domain (ODD)—different levels of automation will be available within the same vehicle. The capabilities of a given automation level as well as the operator’s responsibilities must be communicated in an appropriate way. To date, however, there are no agreed-upon evaluation methods that can be used by human factors practitioners as well as researchers to test this.

Methods: We developed an iterative test procedure that can be applied during the product development cycle of ADS. The test procedure is specifically designed to evaluate whether minimum requirements as proposed in NHTSA’s automated vehicle policy are met.

Results: The proposed evaluation protocol includes (a) a method to identify relevant use cases for testing on the basis of all theoretically possible steady states and mode transitions of a given ADS; (b) an expert-based heuristic assessment to evaluate whether the HMI complies with applicable norms, standards, and best practices; and (c) an empirical evaluation of ADS HMIs using a standardized design for user studies and performance metrics.

Conclusions: Each can be used as a stand-alone method or in combination to generate objective, reliable, and valid evaluations of HMIs, focusing on whether they meet minimum requirements. However, we also emphasize that other evaluation aspects such as controllability, misuse, and acceptance are not within the scope of the evaluation protocol.     

A Systematic Procedure for Modeling Usability Based on Product Design Variables: A Case Study in Audiovisual Consumer Electronic Products

A systematic modeling approach to describing, prescribing, and predicting usability of a product has been presented. Given the evaluation results of the usability dimension (UD) and the measurement of the product’s design variables, referred to as the human interface elements (HIEs), the approach enables one to systematically assess the relationship between the UD and HIEs. The assessed relationship is called a usability model. Once built, such a usability model can relate, in a quantitative manner, the HIEs directly to the UDs, and thus can serve as an effective aid to designers by evaluating and predicting the usability of an existing or hypothetical product. A usability model for elegance of audiovisual consumer electronic products has been demonstrated.     

人工冻结法调控多年冻土区桩基础地温场的效果分析*

为了解决青藏铁路运营过程中,由于多年冻土地基的升温退化,部分多年冻土区桥梁桩基础承载性能下降,产生有害沉降变形,进而造成桥梁上部结构移位破坏,甚至部分桥梁桩基础在短时间内产生较大的沉降变形这一严重问题。基于当前多年冻土区桥梁桩基础沉降病害快速抢修技术空缺,提出人工冻结技术处置多年冻土区桥梁桩基础沉降病害的新设想,利用数值软件建立冻结管-桩基础三维模型分析该技术的可行性与调控效果,分析冻结参数、场地冻土条件等对冻结效果的影响。研究结果表明:人工冻结法可以快速降低桩周多年冻土温度;同时,冻结96 h可以对桩基地温场起到较好的冷却效果;冻结管至桩的距离对冻结效果的影响最为显著,冻土的含冰量越大,则降温速率越慢。     

反应堆压力容器材料中Ni界面偏析对富Cu溶质团簇演化影响的模拟研究

目的定量研究镍原子的界面偏析对降低团簇与基体间表面能及促进团簇形核、提升团簇数密度的贡献,以深化对反应堆压力容器溶质团簇演化过程和辐照脆化中溶质团簇机理的认识。方法通过考虑Fe-Cu-Ni三元合金溶质团簇中镍原子的界面偏析,利用团簇动力学方法研究了团簇中镍原子分布对富铜溶质团簇演化的影响。结果相比铜团簇,加入镍原子后的铜镍团簇自由能显著降低,团簇数密度显著提高;随团簇中镍原子界面偏析加剧,团簇自由能与团簇尺寸逐渐下降,团簇数密度先小幅上升,后下降。结论镍可以促进富铜溶质团簇的形核,提升团簇的数密度,而其中镍原子的界面偏析对促进团簇形核的贡献可能有限;在团簇生长过程中,镍原子的界面偏析可能会抑制其生长,减小团簇的尺寸。     

On the dissolution kinetics of humic acid particles. Effect of monocarboxylic acids

The dissolution kinetics of humic acid particles has been studied in batch experiments, and the effects of monocarboxylic (formic, acetic, and propionic) acids are reported. The dissolution rate of the particles is significantly affected by the presence of monocarboxylic acids in the pH range 4–10. At pH 7, for example, propionic acid increases 30 times this dissolution rate. The capacity of increasing the dissolution rate is in the order formic acid < acetic acid < propionic acid, and this dissolving capacity of carboxylics seems to be directly related to their affinity for HA molecules located at the surface of the solid particles. The results indicate that carboxylics and related compounds may affect markedly the mobility and transport of humic substances in the environment.     

一维脉冲波透过压电介质摩擦接触界面的传播

以压电材料为核心的结构和元件在装置中,总是和其他材料组合在一起,常用来传导表面波或承受动荷载,界面是其中的重要组成部分。当扰动很强时,会引起接触界面的局部滑移和分离,对结构安全产生威胁。笔者对一维脉冲波透过横观各向同性压电介质摩擦接触界面的传播进行了研究。利用Fourier分析的方法,将混合边值问题化为非线性代数方程组,通过迭代修正,确定了界面上分离、滑移和粘着3种区域的分布范围,同时计算了界面剪力和相对滑移速度的分布。笔者进一步丰富了压电弹性波动理论,利用波所携带的力学或电学信息,可望无损探测界面的接触状态及接触力等参量,对结构的安全评估与寿命预测具有重要的理论价值与实际意义。